A model-based analysis of the health impacts of COVID-19 disruptions to primary cervical screening by time since last screen for current and future disruptions.

We evaluated how temporary disruptions to primary cervical cancer (CC) screening services may differentially impact women due to heterogeneity in their screening history and test modality. We used three CC models to project the short- and long-term health impacts assuming an underlying primary screening frequency (i.e., 1, 3, 5, or 10 yearly) under three alternative COVID-19-related screening disruption scenarios (i.e., 1-, 2-, or 5-year delay) versus no delay in the context of both cytology-based and human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening. Models projected a relative increase in symptomatically detected cancer cases during a 1-year delay period that was 38% higher (Policy1-Cervix), 80% higher (Harvard), and 170% higher (MISCAN-Cervix) for underscreened women whose last cytology screen was 5 years prior to the disruption period compared with guidelines-compliant women (i.e., last screen 3 years prior to disruption). Over a woman's lifetime, temporary COVID-19-related delays had less impact on lifetime risk of developing CC than screening frequency and test modality; however, CC risks increased disproportionately the longer time had elapsed since a woman's last screen at the time of the disruption. Excess risks for a given delay period were generally lower for HPV-based screeners than for cytology-based screeners. Our independent models predicted that the main drivers of CC risk were screening frequency and screening modality, and the overall impact of disruptions from the pandemic on CC outcomes may be small. However, screening disruptions disproportionately affect underscreened women, underpinning the importance of reaching such women as a critical area of focus, regardless of temporary disruptions.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates in Japan through December 2021: An interrupted time series analysis.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is negatively impacting mental health globally. While increased social cohesion may have initially decreased suicide risk, there are few reports on the long-term impact. We examined the impact of the pandemic on suicide by gender and age through December 2021 in Japan. Methods: We analyzed trends in monthly suicide rates by age and gender from January 2016 to December 2021 using provisional mortality data in an interrupted time series analysis. We also considered linear trends in the pre-pandemic period and seasonal variations. Pandemic onset was defined as from April 2020. Estimated excess deaths by suicide that occurred during the pandemic were calculated. Findings: Excess number of suicide deaths during the pandemic period was estimated to be 1208 for men and 1825 for women. While there was no statistically significant increase in suicide rates overall for both men and women during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic, age-specific analyses showed a statistically significant increase in men 20-29 and 40-49 years, and in women of all age groups, except those under 20, 40-49 and over 80 years. Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on suicide rates in Japan and the impact is most pronounced in women and younger age groups. Subgroup analyses are needed, with a particular focus on those considered to be vulnerable and at increased suicide risk. Funding: A Grant-in-Aid for scientific research from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (Award Number 21K10462).

[A feasibility study on cervical screening in non-attenders invited to undergo HPV self-sampling with cytology triage versus repeat invitation for cytology screening in Hokkaido].

Objectives　We investigated the participation and detection rates of cervical lesions in cervical screening non-attenders offered HPV (human papillomavirus) self-sampling with cytology triage.Methods　From 2016 to 2018, HPV self-sampling was routinely offered as an option, along with cytology, to all non-attenders in Ebetsu City, Japan. The primary endpoints were ≥CIN2 and ≥CIN3 detection rates, and secondary endpoints were abnormal cytology rates and follow-up compliance.Results　Overall, recall invitations were mailed to 6,116 non-attenders, with a response rate of 15.9% (cytology: 6.5%, HPV testing: 9.4%). Of the responders to undergo HPV self-sampling, 11.7% had a positive result and were referred to cytology triage. Moreover, ≥CIN2 and ≥CIN3 detection rates were 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively, in the HPV self-sampling group, and 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively, in the cytology group, showing no statistically significant differences. In those who underwent cytology triage following an HPV positive test, ≥CIN2 and ≥CIN3 detection rates were 23.8% and 11.9%, respectively, which was significantly higher than those who only underwent cytology alone.Conclusion　HPV self-sampling followed by cytology triage is highly effective at detecting high grade disease in non-attenders. Thus, multi-municipality-based studies to standardize processes involving this method are warranted. Furthermore, HPV self-sampling could be a promising method for inviting non-attenders who have difficulty undergoing cervical screening in the COVID-19 pandemic era.

Impact of disruptions and recovery for established cervical screening programs across a range of high-income country program designs, using COVID-19 as an example: A modelled analysis.

COVID-19 has disrupted cervical screening in several countries, due to a range of policy-, health-service and participant-related factors. Using three well-established models of cervical cancer natural history adapted to simulate screening across four countries, we compared the impact of a range of standardised screening disruption scenarios in four countries that vary in their cervical cancer prevention programs. All scenarios assumed a 6- or 12-month disruption followed by a rapid catch-up of missed screens. Cervical screening disruptions could increase cervical cancer cases by up to 5-6%. In all settings, more than 60% of the excess cancer burden due to disruptions are likely to have occurred in women aged less than 50 years in 2020, including settings where women in their 30s have previously been offered HPV vaccination. Approximately 15-30% of cancers predicted to result from disruptions could be prevented by maintaining colposcopy and precancer treatment services during any disruption period. Disruptions to primary screening had greater adverse effects in situations where women due to attend for screening in 2020 had cytology (vs. HPV) as their previous primary test. Rapid catch-up would dramatically increase demand for HPV tests in 2021, which it may not be feasible to meet because of competing demands on the testing machines and reagents due to COVID tests. These findings can inform future prioritisation strategies for catch-up that balance potential constraints on resourcing with clinical need.

Cervical screening during the COVID-19 pandemic: optimising recovery strategies.

Disruptions to cancer screening services have been experienced in most settings as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ideally, programmes would resolve backlogs by temporarily expanding capacity; however, in practice, this is often not possible. We aim to inform the deliberations of decision makers in high-income settings regarding their cervical cancer screening policy response. We caution against performance measures that rely solely on restoring testing volumes to pre-pandemic levels because they will be less effective at mitigating excess cancer diagnoses than will targeted measures. These measures might exacerbate pre-existing inequalities in accessing cervical screening by disregarding the risk profile of the individuals attending. Modelling of cervical screening outcomes before and during the pandemic supports risk-based strategies as the most effective way for screening services to recover. The degree to which screening is organised will determine the feasibility of deploying some risk-based strategies, but implementation of age-based risk stratification should be universally feasible.